Road Forecasting

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• MeteoGroup has developed a sophisticated road forecasting tool to support winter road maintenance all over Europe. The key feature is the road surface temperature and condition forecast, provided by our numerical road model. This model uses a combination of statistical techniques and physical parameterizations to calculate location-specific road surface temperature and condition forecasts. 

  The physical element of the model is based on the energy balance method (see figure below). Based on a detailed weather forecast, real-time observations and information on the specific characteristics of the road, the model calculates a road surface temperature using the energy balance. This physical temperature forecast is improved by statistical correction based on verification.

   

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  The result of our specialist road model is a highly accurate road temperature forecast, calibrated with (real-time) road temperature observations. 

   

Route-based forecast

• One of the latest developments from MeteoGroup’s MRD team is a route-based forecast model. In contrast to the road model, this model produces a road temperature and condition forecast for the entire road network (see figure below).   

   

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  To create a route-based forecast sky view and solar view statistics must be obtained for the route. Sky view is an indication of the amount of sky that is visible from the road and the solar view indicates if the road is shaded. Both factors strongly correlate to the road temperature (see figure below). To measure the sky view and solar view, MeteoGroup has developed specialized measurement equipment. Route-based forecasts can be calibrated using road-site specific information.

  A further refinement of the route-based forecast can be delivered using thermal map information.