Long term MeteoGroup model predicts dry September

This year we were happy to see that our Seasonal and Sub-Seasonal range forecasts were able to predict both the late winter cold of the 'Beast from the East' and the heat and drought of this summer, in northern and central Europe. Our many years of experience at long range forecasting and development and application of powerful statistical forecasting techniques have enabled us to develop a very effective 'toolbox'. This allows us to regularly get an early lead, ahead of the numerical models, of what the key weather impacts will be, for the month and the season ahead. Such information is extremely valuable for customers in sectors like energy and Water Management.

Let’s have a quick look at a very recent example of how we produced a 'multi-analog' statistical forecast for September average precipitation, already back in early August.

“We developed this statistical forecast to look for signals on the likely distribution of wet and dry zones over Europe in this September, and to give us an edge on the ECMWF and CFSv2 Sub-Seasonal models that would almost certainly be slower to pick up on the key patterns for the month”, says Matt Dobson, Senior Energy Meteorologist.

“The statistical analog forecast process identifies years since 1950 that saw a similar pattern of global weather circulation patterns and sea surface temperature anomalies in late spring and early summer, to 2018. We then identified 9 years with a close match to 2018, with 2006, 2002 and 1994 seeing very similar global circulation patterns during the summer, to 2018.

Three distinct belts of rainfall anomalies across Europe
“Our forecast predicted a reasonably high confidence signal for drier than average conditions over north-western parts of Europe across Germany and southern Scandinavia to the Baltic States, while north-west Scandinavia, along with southern Europe and the Mediterranean region, was expected to see above average rainfall. These results were then presented to our customers via MeteoGroup's UK and European-wide Sub-Seasonal reports, issued through mid to late August.

And what happens next"Only recently we have seen that the computer models are starting to pick up on this signal with any confidence for September, with this week's ECMWF Sub-Seasonal model showing a stronger signal for a belt of dry weather from the southern half of the UK to the Baltic. So, based on our long-term model our customers were able to stay ahead of the curve, giving them a first mover advantage.

 

We developed this statistical forecast to look for signals on the likely distribution of wet and dry zones over Europe in this September, and to give us an edge on the ECMWF and CFSv2 Sub-Seasonal models that would almost certainly be slower to pick up on the key patterns for the month