Winter Outlook: What’s in store for the season ahead
A traditional weather forecast typically extends to between 10 and 14-days in the future. But, sometimes, we need to know what the weather could be like beyond this timeframe to prepare for emerging weather shifts in advance. Periods of severe weather can have a dramatic and diverse impact on businesses, so advanced knowledge of such events can be invaluable for planning and securing operations.
What are the advantages of knowing the winter outlook?
Seasonal and sub-seasonal range forecasts help organizations to anticipate weather extremes and business impacts, potentially unlock new opportunities to become more cost-efficient. Effectively, you can save - or even 'make' - money with reliable long- term forecasts.
It’s not about ‘snowmageddon.’
A UCL paper, predicting the coldest Jan-Feb since 2013 and the 7th coldest winter in the last 30 years, was re-interpreted into sensationalist headlines by tabloids. While these stories no doubt help sell newspapers and get website clicks, they’re not helpful for organizations seeking accurate weather data to plan.
The value of the outlooks comes from the skill and capabilities of experiences long-range forecasters, who know how to interpret the information. Their mission is:
- To deliver objective weather information - devoid of hype
- Be transparent about the methods and performance use
- Use multiple prediction methods, including:
- Super-computer model forecasts
- Statistical techniques
- Human insight/expertise
- Emphasis the forecast confidence and probability
Long-term forecasting is probabilistic, with a confidence measure also included in the forecasts: low, moderate, or high. In other words, it's all about 'forecasts of opportunity'. If the forecast confidence is low, and the outcomes are less specific; it's tougher to use it as a basis for decision making. However, even low confidence, less precise forecast is, in itself, useful information for decision-makers. And, when the forecast has a high probability of occurring and also high confidence, and you can take actions based on this forecast with reduced risk.
Winter is coming! Is your business prepared?
In a concise and to-the-point 30 minute session, you will have the opportunity to hear about what is influencing our preliminary thoughts on the upcoming winter season and how we envisage the weather that might impact your business.
If you want to get ahead of your competitors, register for the Winter Outlook Webinar, which includes a summary of our thoughts on winter 2019 - 2020 for Europe and how these expected weather patterns could impact various business sectors.
Plus, if you want evidence of the accuracy of long-range forecasts, the webinar includes a short review of last winter and this past summer in Europe (and how our forecasts performed).
If you work in an industry impacted by the weather, reserve your place for the Winter Outlook Webinar and discover how you can prepare: